Economic reality

Submitted by WhitesCreek on December 21, 2009 - 7:39am.

Roane County Property Assessor Teresa Kirkham said lakeside properties have lost $23.5 million in appraised value since the ash spill, resulting in an annual loss of $160,300 in property tax revenues for the county.

I don't think this is correct. I've not heard Ms. Kirkham say anything like "Property values have declined," personally, but I haven't been at every meeting. She has actually stated that property values have gone up, as I recall...Difficult position to back up in my view.

Something more than "Rah, Rah, sis boom Bah...Humbug"


If the selling price for the

If the selling price for the TVA properties were "sealed" from the public, are they also sealed from the Assessor. If so, how can she determine that property sales have risen. It should go on assessed value from the previous year, not sell price from TVA afterward.

INFLATED prices

is what she was talking bout, TVA overpaid greatly for the properties they bought and i have seen some of the prices, they are not sealed, Its a one time shot, but they increased !!!!!

Where did you see the

Where did you see the prices? My brother was one who got a settlement for some damage done and he had to sign a paper that he would not disclose the settlement to anyone!

Then you

know what he got some were triple the value of the land, and homes interviews on TV, Youtube , etc. Did TVA record the deeds at the courthouse? Several had enough left over to buy new homes in Centers Farm etc, and new cars and toys ........

No, my brother would not

No, my brother would not tell anyone what he got. We kind of guessed in the range but he abided by the contract he signed. We can figure they got a lot more than their property was assessed for by their purchases but the exact amount wasn't published to the public. I guess some people have loose lips, but that could put them in a legal situation for breach of contract!

The contracts have a one

The contracts have a one year confidentiality clause.

Randy Ellis
randyellis@gmail.com

Hey guys

you know that one that works over at the Roane County, loose lips thae day he got his check but that year is up in a few is up!!!

Where were you able to see

Where were you able to see these sale prices at? I have been told by the TVA they were sealed.

Randy Ellis
randyellis@gmail.com

We got one

that works for the county BRAGGING about what he got and the exact number he got!!!!!!!And Randy you gonna believe what TVA says all of a sudden lol...

LOL Lord no! I was also

LOL Lord no! I was also told by the Property Assessors office that the amounts were not going to be released.

Randy Ellis
randyellis@gmail.com

Teresa....

...Is just flat out wrong and both you and I know it WC. She's talking out of both sides of her mouth. One day she says property values have increased and the next she puts an actual number on the decrease. Where's her data, modeling, trending, etc. Roane County properties have lost WAY more than 23.5 Million. At this point since Dec 22, 2008 there has not been one sale of a lake property dowstream of the ash spill down to around Dearmond Road, Garlington Point area.....over 10 miles downstream. Those very few properties that have sold went for substantially less than what their value should have been. Nothing on the lake downstream and within 10 miles has sold in a year. The data tells me that properties in close proximity have no marketability or value.

In 2009 MLS indicates a grand total of 6 lake properties transferred in the 37763 & 37748 zip codes directly dowstream from the spill site (None within 10 miles). Approx 8% of 2009 lake listings have sold....thats frightening! Compare this data to Ft. Loudon or Tellico and it gets real frightening!

If you live downstream within 10 miles you cannot obtain financing on a lake property due to appraisal disclosures of the ash spill. There's not a bank or investor in their right mind that will loan money on a lake property anywhere near this ash spill.

If you cant sell it or finance it then what can it realistically be worth?

I submit that 23.5 Million won't come close to touching the property values of these affected properties. Also, if the City of Kingston had any sense they would start calculating the value damage to their lake property which happens to be their most valuable asset. Just the City of Kingston lake property has lost well over 23.5 Million. I would venture to guess that Matt C's holdings has lost over 23.5 Million in value. I'm not even going to begin to estimate future losses, future prospective values and income streams, future absorption rates, etc. This all should be considered also. I have no disrespect for Teresa. She does as good a job at managing the tax rolls as any other county assessor. However, she is out of her league on this playing field.

Last but not least I know what is coming from a tax card standpoint and I hope 10,000 people appeal their taxes and swamp the EQ board.

Crappieman MLS data

The sale of lake property in Roane County may not be up to par with Ft. Loudon and Tellico, however that is not a fair comparison. Ft.Loudon thrives off Knoxville population, and Tellico thrives off successful retirement type developments. Roane county has never been on the same scale as these 2 lakes. To compare this properly you would have to look at the sale of property on Watts Bar, Ft. Loudon, and Tellico prior to the spill and compare it to the sales after the spill. Then you could see if the decline on Watts Bar was greater than the other lakes in the area.

Lakefront Property Market

Madman of Midtown

I am in the middle of just such a study...comparing the two different lake area markets both before and after the ash spill. It looks to me like Watts Bar was dramatically hit with a lakefront property decline that is unique and quite significant when compared to other East TN lakefront markets.

It is tricky however as many TVA "buys" at high prices are included in MLS statistics and need to be backed out and many ash victim "re-buys"...victims who collected and then bought further down the lake, are included in the record as well. When these two factors are backed out the the property market echoes with emptiness BUT in recent weeks we are starting to see some recovery....but at much much reduced pricing...want a dockable lakefront on Grande Vista Bay ?...one just hit the market well under $100K...foreclosure

Grande Vista Data...

Is a result of a different animal but with a lingering influence from the TVA ash disaster. Grande Vista was initially hit by the recession due to the simple fact that the developer sold the vast majority of lots to out of state investors with which local banks financed with zero money down and 100% financing. When the economy turned south and property values started to slide these investors allowed these 100% mortgages to become delinquent because they had no cash in the deal. Its the same process that has occurred in the Rarity Developments. Some developers like Matt Caldwell are very careful to screen buyers to weed out the investor and sell to the future resident. This serves to protect the financial integrity of the developent. Mike Ross (Rarity), Jim Mackrie (Grande Vista) and the vast majority of developers do not take these measures which is a reciope for disaster in a recession.

You are right however, the TVA "buyouts" created a false and fictitious market which artificially fed the realtors last year. However, this fictitious market and its data are irrelavent with respect to the real market data, and this data has fizzled out anyway.

I know you are a well respected realtor and certainly I have a lot of respect for your agency. However, I fail to see any recovery for lakefront properties within a reasonable proximity to the spill and steam plant.

Also, what no one is talking about is the future damage to the market, future loss of value/equity, future absorption rates, and the damage that has been done to the future linear progression of the county as a whole with respect to our economy which was poised to be driven by real estate investment.

The losses are piling up and TVA is stepping out trying to gain immunity from financial responsibility. I expect any day that Judge Varlan will rule against TVA. However, I also expect that TVA will appeal this decision all the way to the supreme court which will take years to resolve. One needs to look no farther than Valdez to understand how this process will play out. Its been 17+ years and Exxon is still appealing judgements with no cash having been paid to victims to offset their losses. TVA is a similar corporate tyrant and will proceed with the corportae litigation play book. Sometimed I wonder if it wouldn't be best to cut our losses and just walk away, but that would be more chicken shit than TVA's actions. I just can't allow an entity to rape and pillage me without a fight.

Sorry about the rant its a genetic thing.

You are right...

When you said "However, I fail to see any recovery for lakefront properties within a reasonable proximity to the spill and steam plant." you are completely correct but we are actually seeing an uptick in buyer traffic but again you are right...the sales are only happening on properties downstream.

GVB is a strange beast but you have to believe that with the prices showing up out there purchases can't be far away...you gotta believe...

Roanelakey....

I wasn't comparing Watts Bar data to Fort Loudon or Tellico. The only comparisons I made in reference to these other lakes is the obvious which is that these other lakes are humming right along while Watts Bar is in a contaminated slump. There hasn't been a decline in property value on Loudon or Tellico.....only Watts Bar! Loudon and Tellico haven't been affected by the ash spill so why would I want to compare pre-ash spill data to these lakes? Clearly the data shows that Watts Bar Lake properties are suffering tremendously. Furthermore, what you seem to have no understanding of is what Watts Bar Lake was poised to become in the next 5-10 years, which was to to be a viable competitor to Tellico and Loudon due to our plethora of available land, new developments, and price competitiveness. Please allow me to clarify once more. Not only is Watts Bar not up to par with Loudon and Tellico...it is now thanks to TVA not up to par with any body of water in East Tennessee. Now those of us who have a financial stake in this concept and have lost our real estate investments understand the ramifications of this mess. Obviously you do not!

uptick in home and land values

Both assessors said values surged early in the five-year reappraisal cycle and have since hit a plateau. "When something sells now, it's holding pretty true to value," Kirkham said.
Link
If you can't sell it, what is it worth?

I don't know what rock that

I don't know what rock that Property Assessor Teresa Kirkham has been living under. But how is she going to tell these people that have piles of ash in their front and back yards that their property values have risen?

WoW I guess having the worst environmental disaster in U.S. History right here in our own back door raises property values?

Randy Ellis
randyellis@gmail.com

When the property is

When the property is reassessed during the upcoming cycle, I would think that the appraiser will note that the property is affected by the ash spill and the assessment should come down (at least for this upcoming assessment cycle). If it does not, the the property owner needs to be sure and argue his assessment with the review group when the time comes.

I asked her to appear before

I asked her to appear before the Roane County Long Term Recovery Committee. And she did state that the property in the Swan Pond area was going to go up based on sales in the area. Over the past few years. We will just have to wait and see.

Randy Ellis
randyellis@gmail.com

Long Term

not short term look at say 5 10 or 15 years down the road, and you will see this area as a much desired area, with the new river banks, new roads hey TVA has put in new infrastructure.

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